expensive at these levels, page-4

CTX is a very difficult stock to value. Not only does the company have limited control over the refining margin but it also faces the costs and disruption involved in shutting down one of its two Australian refineries. In the near term it is not hard to see at least the possibility that the share price could take a hit if (for example) a combination of increased shut down costs and lower refining margins eventuated. In the longer term, the removal of one refinery could allow the very well run distribution and retail businesses to become a more significant part of CTX's business and a return to higher dividend levels.

It's also worth noting that the brokers are currently very negative on on CTX. According to FNArena, only one broker currently has an outperform rating - compared to three neutral/hold and three sell/underperform. This is more or less the way the brokers have viewed CTX for some time - if CTX gets it right there is considerable scope for a change in sentiment to push the share price higher.

Short version - CTX shareholders (including me) currently face a lot of uncertainty but that uncertainty is to both the upside and the downside.