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I think the Goldman Sachs reports are perhaps the best source...

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    I think the Goldman Sachs reports are perhaps the best source for the probabilities you seek. They are stepped by event.

    Having said that there are so many forks in the road that it becomes very loose very quickly. It's difficult to apply odds to something that has so many shades of grey.

    For my money I try to read as much information I can on the company and endeavour to make an informed decision from there.
 
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