Some interesting questions and points. On your suggestion I take...

Some interesting questions and points.

On your suggestion I take a short term view:

Yes and No. Yes, Covid-19 will be short term but how short and how deep no one knows. There is a chance APT will survive but it's by no means a certainty since the business model isn't proven. There are a lot of questions the market is asking, how much will bad debt increase, will APT have lower merchant fees for the period when merchants are struggling and how badly will volume and growth be affected? I have a rather pessimistic view on this and given APT SP reaction AP does the market. If it survives would there have to be a capital raising and if so at what price and how bad would the dilution be?

No, I'm not done with Afterpay. I love the concept and think it's an amazing business in normal macroeconomic circumstances.

Regarding a reentry point, I'm really not sure. I might take a small bite over the next couple of weeks but for a serious position I need to see COVID-19 under control and signs of discretionary spending to rock back up. So my "when" isnt mandated by a particular share price but more an improvement in circumstances.

I've been pessimistic on the whole market since about 4 weeks ago large around the time when APT released its interim report. I cashed out large positions, which were mostly made up of higher risk momentum stocks (WAAAX and the likes). In hindsight this was a good decision.

Over the last couple of trading days I've rotated some of that cash I'm sitting on into stocks that I know won't go under (e.g. CBA, BHP, COL etc) and will likely just ride the rest of the wave. I may have pulled the trigger a little early though and I'm still of the view that there is a lot more to for the markets to drop further. I'm holding more vmcash for that eventuality.

So yes pessimistic on the broader market but with a portfolio positioned to take advantage.