LYC 2.74% $5.86 lynas rare earths limited

explanation to why sp has dropped, page-57

  1. tdl
    389 Posts.
    Hi Ac,

    With regard to potentially supplying customers and compensation from Sept - Lynas was never going to be operational in sept anyway.

    The plant was due for construction completion only (and still is). The 4th qtr was for first fill of chemicals, unit and then end-to-end acceptance testing, etc. First (initial) products were due to be produced in the 1st qtr 2012 (timing hasn't changed). Incremental ramp-up would continue with full-ramp up, at steady-state, by end of 2nd qtr (timing hasn't changed). This is in-line with prior investor calls that the company has held.

    Therefore overall - there are no delays announced. Only two pieces of paperwork that lynas needs to submit and have approved, prior to reception of the pre-op license by end of year (which is in-line with the above commissioning plans).

    Lynas will therefore have first sales in the March qtr 2012 followed by full sales from jul. Therefore come July, lyc should be generating around 135m+ profit/mth which really isn't that far away.

    Also my understanding is that lynas is only contractually obligated once production has commenced -- therefore no penalty.

    With regard to Molycorp, they too will need to go through the same processes (construction, testing, etc) and prior to that they need to obtain their environmental licenses, etc. ie they have a loooong way to go, and lynas will definately still be far ahead of them.

    As you've written some fair points which require clarifications, I have written to the company asking them if they could publish within their next quarterly report answers to the above. If they do, then that will significantly provide additional market confidence.

    Regards
 
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