G'day
Thejerry01. In Post #:
77522557 on another Vertex thread:you said:
"been a 5 times so far,, will it be 10 times into 2025 go gold what is the next gold winner??"
Thumbs up re your well-placed optimismWell done with your comments over a long time about Vertex being 'as "
cheap as chips" etc. and the gold price to go up. I agree that Vertex could double from here. In fact, if things go well – especially exploration success - I think it could go way more than that - see further down. But some preliminary comments re your question about the "
next gold winner"...
Limited capital makes comparisons essentialSince I don't have endless money to commit to the market, and I'm well set in Vertex, I wouldn't consider another stock unless I thought it would be better than Vertex. To me, every purchase has an opportunity cost of using capital that I might use elsewhere. If I buy a share that say doubles but I do that with money I got from selling a stock that later triples, I've made a bad call – especially when transaction costs and possible tax and accounting fees are included as well.
With my optimistic view about the potential upside in Vertex, it would take a pretty fantastic story – able to be indicated by decent research - for me to shift my attention. Speaking of research ...
So much research needed ... Bearing in mind that we're talking about protecting our hard-earned, it takes a lot of research IMO to form a solid view about a stock - and even then, stuff can unexpectedly happen. I've been caught on a few over the years where the management was found wanting. That's a big problem since projects don't develop themselves.
As always, Warren Buffett makes sense when he says one should imagine having a punch card with only 20 shots on it in a lifetime, so when you pick one of your 20 opportunities, look at it real well!
To me, it's almost a case of waiting for a great opportunity to come to my attention for review (e.g. through word of mouth or in the media) as an investor rather than go out scanning the lists (which can lead to 'forcing' a selection).
Recognising huge potential when it comes alongI was invested in lithium (starting 2017) and could see high-potential in the short term in the sector but became disenchanted with my initial investment due to its poor management. The shortcomings were not apparent until they tried to develop an asset that probably is not viable. The writing was on the wall. Contrast that with here; chalk and cheese.
One day I heard about Vulcan Energy and at first glance it looked to have tremendous potential upside. After some research I started buying. This was my first Post #:
45132811, in June 2020, when I described the stock – at 39c - as a "Very compelling indeed" Buy – even in the midst all the Covid BS.
I did a hell of a lot more research and the more I looked at it – including, critically, their management - the more I liked it. I sold all my second-rate lithium stocks and continued to add as I learned more of the story and as the project was derisked. I am so grateful I did enough to feel confident enough to increment up to a decent holding from which I thankfully ended up with one of those rare life-changing investments.
I was only able to get that reward because I had developed a belief in the project that meant I held the stock for long enough to participate in an extraordinary re-rating. That belief was formed by the classic DYOR - hours and hours of research and talking to people and backing my own judgment when non-holders were telling me to sell at what would have been trifling returns, with hindsight. I like hearing new ideas that have some thought behind them but I am very wary about jumping into another story – "the other man's grass is always greener" mistake.
Failure to reassess an improving story leads to huge missA huge blunder that I made was driven by a misguided thought bubble that I would sell a spec. gold stock holding of over 1 million shares, for circa 10c each, and find some great new thing – LOL. A friend who knew the story way better than I had bothered to research it tried to talk me out of selling, explaining why - but I was mentally on the hunt by then.
I rationalised the sell decision on the basis that an undeveloped orebody that they had just bought was low grade (although big), and that I could do better elsewhere – a sort of "next winner" dream. It was really dumb because the incoming management team were experts at that sort of thing, the gold sector was great and it was in a great jurisdiction (WA) and located not too remotely.
I just failed to weigh up the data that was there (which included potential – under great management - for a resource upgrade, which BTW has since occurred). Instead, I flirted with ... what ?? .. I can't now recall. However ...Train smash alert...The stock that I sold for circa 10c was Capricorn Metals. They are $7.53 as I write this. In non-pub language, that was an expensive lesson.:-(
Back to Vertex – "Tremendous upside"Vertex, isn't either of the other stocks and no inferences can be drawn from a comparison with their overall circumstances - although Capricorn was an under-appreciated gold resource. Market risk is different too. However, my experience (and I have other examples) illustrates that IF:
(a) you do pick a really good one;
(b) you are confident enough to hold enough and for long enough for if and when a major re-rating occurs; and
(c) you also balance your own circumstances at home and with world markets etc,
it can be incredibly rewarding.
My view remains, as I said in this Post #:
77288369 on 6 January 2025, that Vertex has "
Tremendous upside if all continues to go to plan." I'm very grateful for the fantastic job that Roger Jackson (Chairman), Declan Franzmann and Tully Richards have been achieving as Directors thus far – especially Roger and Declan (given their roles in activities to date.). No doubt Tully will be keen to demonstrate his exploration skills in his home paddock in the very exciting upcoming phase of the company's life. And all this at a time when gold is at record prices and Government debasement of fiat currencies continues at an alarming rate – Australia also being an contributor to that largesse, particularly so recently...)
(20min delay)