Cheers Messi,
You have spent time and effort putting together a good functional template for your spreadsheet, as well as your thoughts on the potential drilling outcomes.
I tend to approach drilling in the Carajas more conservatively, re timeframes.
We have seen the Pebas timeline morph from Jan/Feb, to Q2, to a now more refined 'after the first round of RC drilling at Itapitanga' (in Q2).
You will recall that CTM's last major drilling program, last year, at Serra Misteriosa (diamond core), was described by the company as experiencing drilling productivity issues (and access and wet season rainfall well into June, it is north of Salobo, 07/07/17 pages 1 and 3), resulting in the timeframe from announced commencment of drilling to announced first assays (for only 1.5 holes) being approx 50 days (18/05 - 07/07).
AVB's initial drilling program at Antas North (the analogue for Pebas according to CTM) in 2008 (diamond core) had to be abandoned (11 holes for approx 300m) due to ground conditions not being conducive to sample recovery (AAND01 - AAND11) as mentioned by AVB on 17/09/08 (page 3) and they commenced drilling Antas North after the wet seaon. Subsequent drilling there has been very successful.
CTM will be undertaking RC at Pebas, however what the above is intended to show is that ground conditions, the wet season and the relative abilties of the rigs/crew are, imo, a potent consideration, sometimes overlooked, when assessing both stated and hoped for timeframes in drilling in the Carajas, regardless of the company's assertion the wet season won't impact drilling.
I suspect in hindsight, the real timeline might fall between your 'best-case' (my wording) scenario and my 'way more conservative' scenario.
Time will tell and again, nice work on the template.
Will CTM expend $200K on exploration by Nov to retain the Aurora Project.
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