A lot of blue sky potential with the new unexplored areas.
But the 11km Opuwo monster alone is having the potential to be a company maker.
Taking the middle of the exploration target = 37 mt with 0,15% Co and 0,55% Cu we have with current spot prices an in-situ value of 4,8 billion US$ = 3,9 moz Au equivalent
I made a number game with following premises considering a 1 mtpa mining operation:
Life of mine 37 years
Capacity 1 mtpa
Recovery 90%
At current spot prices revenues approx. 117 U$m p.a.
Cash costs per year at 10 US/lb Co = 30 U$m p.a.
Cash Flow before depreciation and tax 87 U$m p.a.
Capex 100 U$m
--> Result: Approx 920 A$m NPV (10%)
--> Including 37,5% mining tax in Namibia and 95% ownership = 545 A$m net CLA
A fair value after having a DFS in maybe approx. 18-24 months could be 25% of this NPV = 136 Am$ marketcap
An increase vs. the current marketcap (26 A$m ) of 425%.
Considering some dilution for approx. 15 A$m to bring the project in DFS level, a possible return for shareholders could be approx 300% in 18-24 months.
I know: Wild figures and a lot of speculation. Maybe this number game is miles away from what we will see in the Scoping Study in Q1 2018. Nevertheless it give me a rough idea about the potential of this project.
And I'm hoping for more due to tailwind from higher Co/Cu prices and a bigger resource implicating a bigger mining operation.
Still a long way to go, but the company is definitely having a very good chance to become a producer in some years.
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