The lack of patent protection is a handbrake on the NOX share price, but that is about to change.
The Patent about to be approved in Europe is highly relevant because it talks about achieving a desired amount of drug in the blood by using a suppository in combination with chemotherapy and all forms of radiotherapy. Big Pharma will know that a deal to acquire Veyonda will enjoy significant patent protection in Europe, and presumably in the US once applications reach grant stage, with more to come as 2
nd generation applications are processed.
The timing is exquisite:
- Novartis will reveal VISION data at ASCO on 7 June. Median survival of about 14 months (which accords with earlier trials) will surely lead to FDA approval, but patients may decide that they cannot justify the very high cost of treatment for a relatively small extension of life over Cabazitaxel. By comparison, NOX66 + LuPSMA achieved median survival of 19.7 months in 56 patients who were in WORSE condition than most of those in the VISION trial. If NOX66 has patent protection, Novartis might try to lock up the drug through a Licence, but Noxopharm can afford to wait until results from IONIC, DARRT-2 and CEP-2 are known.
- IONIC will use Opdivo in combination with high doses of NOX66 to see whether the combination improves the efficacy of Opdivo. A pending patent application describes the scientific rationale of combination treatment; and with only 30 patients and a number of hospitals involved, results should become clear at about the same time as a patent decision is made.
- DARRT-2 will be a significant improvement on DARRT-1, which was a success. In DARRT-2, patients will receive high doses of NOX66, repeated monthly, against a range of cancer types, with a stated aim of achieving abscopal responses. If Noxopharm sees promising results in early patients, Big Pharma will need deep pockets to acquire the company.
- CEP-2 has been largely forgotten on these boards, but we should remember that NOX has already been involved in the compassionate treatment of a sarcoma patient using Doxorubicin and NOX66, so it knows what to expect. We know from CEP-1 that the use of NOX66 enables chemotherapy levels to be reduced, without affecting efficacy, raising the possibility that a Big Pharma might decide to swallow the whole oncology program.
- It is surely no accident that each clinical program will reach GO:NO GO status at about the same time the patent positions becomes clear.
We are obviously talking very big figures if a Big Pharma wants to swallow the oncology side of Noxopharm. We have promising data from CEP-1, DARRT-1 and LuPIN, but it has always been clear that this data needed to be accompanied by patent protection.
That is about to start. I expect to see the share price head North once Investors join the dots.
