and in answer to question 3, coals may be laterally extensive,...

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davincirchrd

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14/09/21

13:10

Post #: 56050118
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Originally posted by weeky1: ↑

Hi guys,

Figured I'd throw this one out there to kick off a bit of discussion while we're stuck in this BS trading loop before news comes in. For background, I'm a long term holder since 2019, participated in the recent CR to full extent that I could and basically have everything I've got in EXR (I'm also of the INSUNYD crowd). I figured I'd start with that before the inevitable 'downramper' label gets thrown on this post.

Basically I've been pondering the question as to what is the likely aftermath in the event that the Nomgon flow testing comes back as sub par/non-commercial. I'm trying to prepare myself for this situation (however unlikley it may be), so that it will be easier to handle in the event that it does occur (i.e. not be lured into selling due to irrational thoughts).

My thinking is as follows:
- Short term: Sharp decline in SP based off the initial shock/scaremongering. Back into the traders hands until next flow test program is undertaken.
- Long term: No real difference, potentially just an extension of project timeline as focus shifts to the next most promising sub-basin (at the moment, Yangir or Kingston, but potentially Richcairn or the new Lattice).

My questions are as follows:
1. Is anyone aware of a similar situation to the above occurring (i.e. failed flow testing), perhaps in QGC or the like? I'm not across the full history of that one.
2. If the location chosen within Nomgon does not provide commercial flows, is it likely that the company will attempt further testing elsewhere within the sub-basin before calling it non-commercial? No CBM/CSG experience here, so really I'm wondering how uniform/non-uniform the flow characteristics can be across the sub-basin.
3. This may seem obvious, but am I correct in assuming that generally speaking each sub-basin is fairly 'individual', i.e. its safe to say that a negative flow test result in Nomgon will not have any bearing on the potential of other sub-basins (again, no CSG/CBM background here).

Again, not downramping, just trying to better understand all sides of the story here. GLTAH.

Cheers

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and in answer to question 3, coals may be laterally extensive, but flow capacity properties can vary a lot, by the meter. think of it as poking a hole in coal at depth of 600 to 900 meters depth and hitting that fracture, or not... it can happen, it will happen, it has happened. if the spacing of fractures is larger than the bit size, you get the drift, there is a chance you miss the fracture(s). Solution... ream the hole, increase the size at coal depth, if there are nearby fractures, they will, may, b found.

EXR Price at posting: 23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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