I've got to say my internal timing on some of this has been off...

I've got to say my internal timing on some of this has been off but stepping back you can see the big picture, the big run up to 51c then the lows we are experiencing now (or did just experience i.e 14c) are the work of manipulators / traders etc then it's the long term guys and girls which hold the price at certain levels before the next leg up. Some of the down is warranted re a few drills not going the expected way or external sentiments etc, but the big high's and lows is the stuff I'm talking about. I'm probably preaching to the choir.

That saying traders control the short term and investors control the long term couldn't ring more true. The manipulators have been really working the price over for a while now wringing the weaker hands out but they look to be running out of puff.

Still, it has to be based on fundamentals and situations can change but so far so good in the big scheme of things I would say. Those loading up now would probably be on a good wicket.