EXR Trading 2023, page-514

Good points @WatchNact.

There's a few ways to exit with size in a low volume stock. A fat fingered sell all at market is 1 method....but often can have disasterous effects especially in a low volume environment.

Feeding the sells incrementally over time, as we've seen, enforces in effect a cap....but also prevents a liquidity rush and price drop spikes.

So...the silver lining of Barry's exit (note:- not a total exit from what i can glean....make of that what you will), is that it was/is being done with relative little ill-effect......so I'm grateful for the considered approach to the exit....and that the bot got stymied!

Going fwd:

I've hypotehsied for some time, and in another rambling "Re-rate " thread that commerciality declaration at Nomgon will be THE catalyst for us to re-rate.
Now of course I am not Nostradamus....I can not predict the future....and my view is heavily skewed to the optimistic upside of course, given my huge vested interest....a position I imagine quite a few of us share. Take NONE of this as anything other than wishful thinking....and DYOR as ever.....there are still mountains of risks at play.

But I see this possible scenario play out over 2023.

Commerciality @ Nomgon announced late April/early May-ish.
For me, this triggers new investments in EXR from:

• incumbent holders buying more -))
• new retail entering (ranging from gamblers induced off the back of media & forum pumps to sidelined long term lurkers waiting for a significant de-risk "trigger" to enter)

Both types are nice....and maybe we see 20-30-50-80 million shares acquired.....again...nice , ..might get us to 20c, 25c whatever.

But a step change comes from;
Alpha gain seeking hungry risk tolerant HNW family office types/private funds/smaller insto's focused on Oil& gas perhaps...etc etc.......these are early "sophisticated" entrants looking for validation ("Commerciality declaration"...especially if "validated" via the Mongolioan Government's acknowledgement (which assists in de-risking potential sovereign related risk).
In my view...these "types" might want to take a position of say ranging from10-30 mill a pop...(again...just my thinking)...so say at 18c entry that could be a $1.8m to $5.4m entry position)....looking for 5-20x type potential returns.
If we have a few of these types entering...(again...IF)...then we may see sufficient gains towards our previous 36c SPP point.

PS- We don't as yet see bigger insto's or industry entry .....yet.....BUT we have shifted from a "watch" position to a "take serious interest" position on their radars....and I think we see them potentially enter if/when we appraise Y & BS well and particularly if/when we pilot so later 2024 perhaps.
point is though...and paraphrasing Neil in a previous announcement "we expect the international industry to take note"....not verbatim.

We might of course, on the downside risk scale, see an aggressive play orchestrated by an entity seeking heavy position ASAP to agitate for an early take over......all possibilities are on the table!

So ....crystal ball gazing now..:
We get to 20-25c off the back of more retail (new and incumbent additional...and maybe re-purchasing from previous holders coming back)
initial momentum wanes....we flat line....some "trapped" 36c SPP holders exit (they've planned to all along, maybe didia bit at 14/15c...but have been waiting for a rise to minimise their loss, but exit none the less)
Traders do their thing...we could well get bounced around a fair bit from manual traders and/or the bots.

However, if we zoom past 20-25c and head towards 36c....we will see a lot of chop as you say....it will be difficult to get past 36c (not even looking at the TA aspect of this....which is a consideration of course particularly as volume increases).
i guess it depends on how quickly we ascend towards 36c (if we do!)...if it's quick...we'll see pullback from exit-ers, and chop.
If it's a progressive zig-zag via increased volume (with some healthy oscillation and pullback on the way) say played out over 2-3 months then I think the "trapped" 36c+ entrants MAY not sell down as much, may shed a bit but maybe retain a portion as (some) confidence returns

Breaking 50c this year....IMO....only stems from a combo of outstanding Nomgon coupled with a tangible $ value attributed Gobi announcement + green light partnering/non-equity funding progress at Grandis

Caveat; again...this is just pondering...no advice intended by any means.
Risk is everywhere...force majeure events can and do happen as we have all experienced with Covid, etc.
I am...of course...a massive, biased, unashamed EXR zealot.....BUT DYOR and NONE of this is in any way any means of advice.