EXR Trading 2024, page-821

Hey @Dufrane
Mate- you may have mislabeled me as part of the "brains trust", but anyway, my 2 cents worth;

We can absolutely get to $1- and beyond IMO.
It's the how, why and when that are he unknowns!

We were at 45c back in early 2021 with a fair few less shares on issue and far less progressed than we are today, and without Grandis- it was a totally different market and associated sentiment. We are a significantly more substantial company now with 2 major assets on the cusp of true value realisation (or maybe not) with sentiment warming and a prevailing wind in our sails with regard to gas demand v. supply inefficiency, etc.

As reek167 suggests above, we jump on positive Grandis flow rates- hopefully a few jumps as positive news from stage progression emerges- how much and how fast is anyones guess, although I'm sure we'll see some spikes and some folk exit.
I don't see a mass exodus as some people here suggest- and those that do exit will hardly effect the register.(The Telegram chat group has 110 or so members (a lot duplicated here on HC) with from memory a combined 80 million or so shares held- if ALL of those folk sold on a Grandis related share spike to say 30c, all on the same day- of course it would have an effect- roughly 6% of the shares on issue churning-but it would be temporary, and for every seller there's a buyer yadda yadda- so I just don't see a doomy scenario somehow correlated with good news at Grandis equating with some massive sell off and tanking share price.
People will sell (for a variety of reasons) - that's normal, and completely understandable, but then think about who is buying those shares- and why?- presumably they see upside and perhaps have been waiting for further de-risking to top up, or enter. Further- if you examine the makeup of the Top 20 share holders, there's been a lot of stability there (of course a bit of churn over time, but in essence, fairly stable) I don't see a mass exodus from that list based on positive Grandis or Nomgon flow results.)

So- how and when do we get to a $1 sp?- that's the big question.

Based on current market sentiment and both macro and domestic economic conditions-I don't see us getting to that over the short term- say next 6-9 months. We will go up, but not in a straight line and there are some obvious logical roadblocks (exit points of 36c SPP, 50c psychological levels) and perhaps the traders waltz in as volume increases- etc etc.
Of course- we COULD get to $1 in that period- but it would necessitate multiple good result instances at Grandis and Nomgon that causes :
a) retail punter market sentiment shifting to a risk-on buyer mentality with a bit of fomo setting in (as we've previously experienced!)
or more likely, b) a different type of investor with greater sized entry as we've de-risked further (HNW, family office, smaller alpha seeking insti's etc)
c) nett positive significant market sentiment/economic/global politics & event catalyst changes

But in essence, I don't think we do get to $1 anytime soon, based on organic share market punting.

However- the obvious wild card here is a bid for an asset lobbing in. Could be the Chinese for Nomgon perhaps (I like Mustangs musings on this scenario- but I don't see 1 Chinese entity taking on TMK, Jade and us- maybe individually over time perhaps, but not as a collective rolled up acquisition) or could be our soon to be partner at Grandis (imagine if Shell piped up and declared they wanted both Grandis AND Nomgon)

There are potentially many wild card scenarios (we frikin hope!!!!) all of course assumed on Grandis & Nomgon success cases.
No idea what could happen here- BUT the initial move would act as a share price catalyst that would reflect the underlying valuation attributed to the asset/assets. Markets are fairly efficient at value determination once a precedent is set, until an attributable value for our assets in tabled by an interested party all we can do is hypothesise at what a tcf of gas inground in QLD and Mongolia is "worth" and what someone is willing to stump up for.

That's when it gets really interesting- the 1st mover obviously wants to get the best deal possible- Cottee would then earn his keep by maximising an outcome- do we sell on the spot?- do we tell them to shove it- do competitive bids ensue?- all to play for we hope.

I simply calculate thusly:1.3 billion shares on issue$1.3 billion AUD per tcf for gas in ground at Grandis (for simplicity) (less for Mongolia of course) therefore 1 tcf gas in ground = $1 per share - but of course that won't be reflected in the actual share price Until a market metric is determined via a valuation catalyst- coming from a bid of some type, where analysis determines "value" and the share price should find equilibrium in an efficient market (accounting for a variety of conditions attributable to gas value- time, cost, market conditions etc etc)

I've given up trying to value our assets and reflect that in a share price- there's still so much unknown, huge potential of course (I mean if the coals alone flow at Grandis that's fkin huge even if we only attribute say 10% of the 10's of potential tcf total gas absorbed) and Mongolia is (as it always has been) a massive multi tcf opportunity.

Each to their own and all that with regard to exiting or not- when , at what share price etc- folk will do what folk need to do, but I've spent 5 years accumulating shares and some oppies and I'm not going anywhere until (fingers x'd) we see some clarity on what Grandis and Mongolia is "worth" to us, the market and a reflective share price.

We are SO close to the beginning of that (potential) real value determination - mere months now until we and the market begin to actualise what we (hopefully!) have.

Probably hasn't helped too much sorry mate- would love to just say "$2.40 by May 2025" but that would be pure folly.