exsposure, page-23

Bonus,

I have found your figures are way out according to this government release

http://www.transport.vic.gov.au/Doi/Internet/Freight.nsf/AllDocs/7A660873B235D2A2CA2577730078C5BF?OpenDocument

Currently, the most efficient HPFVs in Victoria are up to 30 metres long and have a gross weight of 77.5 tonnes. With the capacity to transport two 40-foot containers (compared to a conventional B-double which can only transport one 40-foot container), these combinations have the potential to reduce the number of vehicles on Victoria?s roads for a given freight task.

Furthermore, their extra gross weight of 9.0 tonnes over a B-double operating at Higher Mass Limits makes them an efficient and productive vehicle for transporting commodities such as mineral sands and woodchips where rail is not an option.

IMO with the possibility of a minerals tax and a carbon tax coming into fruition by the time VCPL is producing I doubt any of the 2mt Coldry will leave Australia
Businesses are driven by $$ if they can make more cash by selling it locally (no shipping and less handeling) before they commit to higher production rates (5-10)mt
As I say by the time the above taxes are in play VCPL should be able to undercut any black coal market as long as the product meets the technical requirements of the procurement

Did anyone else hear that gas may not be a viable option until of carbon price is around $90
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3190873.htm

TONY JONES: If natural gas is really a viable alternative to coal, why is it that in Western Australia, where they've got the natural gas reserves just offshore, they're planning to build three new coal-fired power stations for economic reasons?

GREG COMBET: Yeah, well there are economic reasons for that and the pricing of domestic gas in Western Australia is a factor in that as well. But there are projects, as I indicated, on the east coast that are ready to be committed where various permits have already been sought and where the investments can be made.

TONY JONES: In their submission to you, the Domestic Gas Alliance says that even a $30-a-tonne carbon price will have no impact, no impact in shifting energy use from coal to gas other than to increase energy prices. You'd be aware of this submission, so what's your response to it?

GREG COMBET: Well there are different views about what prices trigger particular decisions in the industry, but one of the first things a carbon price does is start to bring about changes in the electricity fuel mix, if you like, from lower-emissions sources of energy, including black coal-fired generation, providing a greater element of supply of electricity over brown coal, which is more emissions intensive and more sensitive to a carbon price coming in.

Other forms of energy, these things will be tested on their economic viability and the level of the carbon price over time. But we're very confident that gas-fired baseload generation will be part of our energy mix in the years to come.

TONY JONES: But these are the people who want you to shift to natural gas fire. They say that even at $7 wholesale gas prices, natural gas would only be competitive with coal for new baseload power if the carbon price was $90 per tonne. That'll never happen.

GREG COMBET: Well, look, all I can say to you is that in the consultations that I have with the industry, we're discussing a range of carbon price scenarios and the effect that that would have in the industry.