Well bid is in for $8.65 - assuming it holds (and I don't think anyone is coming to ride to the rescue) reckon that the $9.20 bid from wal71 will be the winner. Rio simply have to neglect to tender their shares in KAH and/or EXT and they have to be negotiated with at some stage in the future....
IMO what some of the optimists in this thread are forgetting is that no two deposits are alike and that valuations are difficult to compare - we all know that the grade makes a huge difference but also the depth of the deposit is critical plus the depth of the mineralisation has a bearing. EXT has an expensive mountain of dirt to clear to get down to the 400ppm commercial grades. Also they won't mine the elements lower than 250m for years and years so there is no way that the deep resource - which is significant for Husab - has the same present value as the resource at say 100m. Net effect of all this is that the effective grade is less than 400ppm given the dirt that has be be moved plus the effective resource size is much lower than advertised.
Wish I had done the maths to estimate the flow-through price of EXT based on a 243p bid for KAH and put in a bid for Surfrat's vino.
EXT Price at posting:
$8.09 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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