Xstrata has already failed with the $2.5 bid.
That's a FACT. It simply doesn't have the numbers.
Once the extension expires, they will launch a new bid (I suspect it will be in the $3.5 - $4 range) which will satisfy most of the intos and retail investors.
If they don't come back with a new bid immediately, the chinese will snap it up before you can say SWISS CHEESE.