I expect and hope that today's price action and volume was due to some nervous shareholders wishing to quit their stock after reading the news on AFG.
I think that this entity is a lot different, whilst it has a lot of debt ( some of which needs to be repaid March and October 2009) it has real assets, real cashflows and I suspect that a sale of Alinta and the Kwinana and Neerabup power stations should bring back its gearing to acceptable levels and who knows even recommence dividends. However given the attractiveness of the portfolio of assets, someone like AGL or Origin may bid for the lot. Given the huge volumes of stock now traded between 10-20 cents the predators will be thinking that a low ball offer may be acceptable to the vast majority of shareholders ( because they have joined at low prices) and a whole lot cheaper than negoitiating to buy the assets on a piecemeal basis.
With the AGM on Friday hopefully there will be some positive news, although I suspect we will still need to wait 4 -5 weeks to hear what offers are coming in via UBS. Christmas draws nearer!
I am buying and clearly banking on a very different outcome to that of AFG. Hope I'm right for all shareholders sake!
BBP Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
