External indicators, that predict Lynas SP future direction

Investor sentiment is probably the best way to know if the stock markets and all stocks within them will change in advance. Sometimes just a few weeks warning is given sometimes several months. The Sentiment has been positive for all stocks. Several indicators say that is changing. Here is statement and explanation from 10 years ago. It applied in 1939 and applies today. Lynas will drop if markets drop. Since so many of Lynas’s metrics related to other stock are way above average, because of 900M shares, JMO, it will drop further and harder once it starts.

"Investor sentiment is a vital indicator - itcan signal a turning point in the markets. And having the knowledge to turnbefore the tide can pay dividends. Here, Tim Bennett gives three tips forgauging the mood of investors.

by: TimBennett

18 MAR 2011

Investors act in herds. There is a perceived safety in largenumbers. So when everyone was buying technology stocks in the late 1990s,anyone left out was tempted to pile in too after all, could so many otherpeople really be wrong? It works the other way too. After Lehman Brotherscollapsed in 2008, many investors, who had held their stocks through all theuncertainty up until then, watched markets plunge and dumped their stocks in apanic.

In short, we are all driven as much by greed and fear as we areby any rational assessment of when we should buy and sell. That's why sentimentis a vital investment indicator. “

https://moneyweek.com/10869/how-to-measure-investor-sentiment-52912

please read the entire document.

I am going to talk about US because that is what I know. It is biggest in world and does tend to heavily influence WW markets.

There are many way to judge Sentiment TIM in his article gives 3. His number one is S&P 500 Put Call ration which I have mentioned several times in recent weeks. My number one is how Much margined debt has been used to buy stocks and I will talk about that first. Put / Call ratio second.

To be a good indicator it should have a track record of turningbefore a change in price multiple times. With no false calls positive or negative on major changes. Margin debt meets this! I will post charts. When the amount of margin grows it shows people are confident in the market. Willing to pay interest to be part of market. Because of debt load these are one of the first indicators to change. It has always change in advance of major market movement. There are other sources of cash, Home equity is popular. Unfortunately there is no way to know how much of this is for stocks or other things.

Margine Debt

This always surges during optimistic periods. It is also one of the first to show when people are losing confidence.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmkteqmardebt.pdf

The above site has many Charts starting in 1979. Look at, fig 1, Notice How margin debt has increased every time market has risen sharply. How outstanding margin started to Fall before every major correction. It compares against the Wilshire 5000 which is a very broad based index. Look at all the figures. They compare against other indexes. Give percent change. See things that disagree with me challenge me.

Here is another chart with S&P 500 for comparison. You can see a small change in November 2021. Be careful of the second figure they Flipped the Y axis.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/12/14/margin-debt-down-1-8-in-november-still-near-record-highs.

Read the article especially the conclusion. Yes I know some of the conclusions disagree with what I am saying. Form your own opinion.

Here is one of the first places you can see DEC 2021numbers. It also gives more data.

Debit Balances in Customers' Securities MarginAccounts 918 B

Free Credit Balances in Customers' CashAccounts 152B

Free Credit Balances in Customers' SecuritiesMargin Account 186B

https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics

That is it for today I will do Put / Call ratio next, Probablya couple of days.

Please disagree with me. Try to avoid name calling. Show why you disagree, using published data. Opinions are great but try to back them up with something!