The biggest hurdle by far is the permit. Not overly concerned about debt finance as Sibanye is JV partner so sure they have some extra weight if necessary.
The devil was in the detail for those that keep harping on about Buckwheat though:
Announcement:
ioneer comments on proposed critical habitat for Tiehm’s
buckwheat as an endangered species
Thursday, 3 February 2022
Some of the statements tell all:
Today’s proposed critical habitat proposal is in line with ioneer’s expectations and prior
announcements, and the Company continues to fully support the FWS’ efforts regarding the
ongoing management and protection of Tiehm’s buckwheat populations at Rhyolite Ridge,
including an ESA listing. This anticipated development has no material impact on our
planned mining activities
Mining activity is allowable within areas designated as critical habitat with the prior approval
of the FWS and US Bureau of Land Management (BLM). ioneer has already taken this into
account with its planning and proposed operations and continues to work closely with both
agencies to ensure its proposed activities will not jeopardise the conservation of the
species.
ioneer continues to work with FWS and BLM to accommodate issues raised and remains
confident that co-existence of Rhyolite Ridge and Tiehm’s buckwheat is achievable.
Just some of the statements made. Now as I said before would management, who have already submitted a prior plan, honestly resubmit in the last quarter without first talking to these 2 bodies and ensuring they were comfortable with the new mine proposal. Obviously not set in stone. But when you have a billionaire buying up big in June. Discussions with DOE about a loan (government organisation btw). Things start to add up. These things are that management keep ticking boxes. When you have a project ready to go waiting on a permit approval only and everything else is waiting and people that need these materials, honestly ask yourself. Do you think they are going to sit on their hands forever?
Even at a solid discount on current spot price. If we say $30,000 a ton for carbonate. Your looking at a JV cut of 10,000 tons a year at $30,000 USD per ton. Thats about 300M a year in turnover. On a 20+ year project thats 6B dollars turnover. Did I mention the northern basin we havent even drilled out yet?
This is definitely a long term hold IMHO and even moreso if we get that permit with Calaway at the helm to help establish the project.
I guess I missed Patrick Donnelly's July monthly share price update on Ioneer that he was more than happy to have a dig at last month 36c saying "I guess it doesnt pay to mine on top of an endangered species". Looking forward to see if he posts again this month or if his subjective-ness gets the better of him.
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