I think there are a number of macro and micro factors involved in Ioneers decline.
Micro: It won’t be producing until 2026, there are other companies closer to production, risk is higher.
macro: oversupply in china from battery production subsidies. These recently ended and there was a huge temporary oversupply. This has killed the lithium spot price, and some companies in china are trying to introduce a floor price to keep it from dropping further. The lithium price is down 50-60%. Interest rates, and market sentiment also isn’t as high - we’re expecting an uncertain 2023.
if you want to be picky, AGY has fallen 48% from its high, and Ioneer has fallen 61%. The larger drop is adequate given how much risk there is from now until production. Anyone can sign sales and take off agreements which look great on paper, but it doesn’t mean much until they are actually mining and making lithium. Look at NEU…it DIED a few years ago while the drug was in trials. Look at 2021 it was $1.50. The closer to came to Phase 3 approval…it took off. I’d expect the same here.
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