Investors new to this stock, researching it for the first time - would surely ask " Where is the catch - why the current SP "
Given :
1/ Their cap of A$35 m and $11.5 m cash.
2/ Outstanding Phase 2 FDA Clinical Trial Brain Cancer results. (Proven anti-tumour kinase inhibitor drug tech)
3/ A fast track - high profile FDA endorsed & sponsored Phase 3 Registration Study imminent
4/ Four other fully sponsored FDA Brain Metastases Clinical Trials (US Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical more)
5/ Much precedent for same stage other cancer drugs - worth A$ 650 million.
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First impression is the stock is trading at one twenty of its fundamental true worth. A nominal share price of $7 now, could match up or align with other mid stage cancer drug development companies, around the world...... (such as to risk reflect the future potential of the drug to obtain marketing approval - and extent of future profits.)
Investigating further - the modest chart/cap leading up to this major Company defining announcement (see highlighted below) likely reflects the high risk involved in Clinical Trials........ potentially even more so here, in Brain Cancers.
Similar very positive results though, has seen other small cancer development companies in the past,...... virtually gap up 300 or 400% to reflect success.
7th April 2020 ASX
The reported overall survival (OS) figure of 17.7 months represents a strong signal of clinical efficacy. The existing, FDA-approved standard of care, temozolomide, is associated with an OS of 12.7 months in this patient population1 . Comparison between different studies is always imprecise, but the magnitude of the numerical difference provides powerful evidence that treatment with paxalisib may extend life in this patient group. The reported progression-free survival (PFS) figure of 8.5 months is slightly better than the figure of 8.4 months previously reported in November 2019. Temozolomide is associated with a PFS of 5.3 months in this patient population.
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The virus may have capped enthusiasm on the 7th April when this announcement was made. It would be hard, even for the most experienced of investors to gauge market response on the day. Certainly no enthusiasm was in the SP, coming into the announcement. The fact is - as mentioned, cancer start ups on mid stage trial results, have gapped 400% in the past.
In actual fact, following the news on the 7th April - and prior to resumption of ASX trading, the company choose to go into a trading halt and issue 22 million additional shares. In this most unusual strategy - it is fair to say enthusiasm associated with the announcement was completely drained.
So the point of this post, is not so much what the company did .....rather that this company present an outstanding opportunity for new investors, researching it for the first time ?
I think it is a most exciting opportunity, but the caveat is the quality of management. Their actions on the 7 th April has dealt a cruel blow to the company credibility - but on raw info that has been presented here, an outstanding opportunity very rarely seen, may be up for grabs to new investors.
So just research it for yourself, and aside from what has been wriiten....be prepared for something extraordinary here, coming off its $35m / $11m cash, at least.
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