Jules,
you are well and truly speaking to the converted! welcome!
yes i think you hit the nail on the head. there is 40m of overburdern which is resulting in a high opex as this is going to be open cut with high waste stripping ratios. however the $100/t OPEX figure used in most calculations has just been us being conservative. as sigma has said murphy's law seems to apply more often than not to mining ops so its better to be on the conservative side.
dont forget though that opex and capex can be easily subtituted at the will of the company. example - purchase vehicles/equipment outright (CAPEX related) or lease them (OPEX related)? they have different tax and financing implications and so on - and you can manipulate the numbers either way to achieve the most economical result. i would suggest their use of a low CAPEX looks better in the eyes of the current market as it is becoming increasingly difficult to secure long term financing outright. nonetheless the numbers already thrown up produce ten-twenty bagger results even being pessimistic about phosphate and the wonarah operation as a whole!
havent seen you post here before - so welcome aboard!!!! looking for a ten bagger here in due time boys and girls =) i am sincerely wishing a major doesnt come in and rip us all off though...
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