Posting this here a duplicate from another thread due to someone’s request. Good starter to newbies who overlooked the acquisition ann like yours truly, a real cute surprise for a minnow that’s done its leg work plus a bit of ‘luck’ in acquiring a transformational project in Hillgrove. Youre encouraged to read the PFS and presos as that’s what gives conviction. This is not financial advice in any way.
Annual revenue at current prices
$151m - gold 41000x3700
$199m - sb 5400x24,000/.65
————
$350m pa or $2.45b over 7 yrs
Scenarios:
$262m pa or $1.83b over 7yrs at 25% discount
$438m pa or $3b revenue 7-yrs at 25% premium
$126m free cash flow on PFS could look conservative based on those headline revenue, depending on au and sb prices, and considering both au and sb doubled, plus gold the go to commodity during recession, and real scarcity of SB, anything is possible (just like lithium from 800 to $8,000 in one year to $800- who can guess where it’s going, SB has double in price in a small space of time, could just be the start if China sees a long term risk of supply and hence prohibits export for years- So the differentiation in this opportunity here is that SB is probably the new rare - rare commodity that no one can discover or scale up easily- eg the peer in Victoria is producing a minute volume that they would have scaled if they can, and they have finitely small resource compared to Hillgrove. Thus LRV is in a very unique position, a minnow micro cap that owns an existing mine that produced au and sb for decades; owner of the biggest SB deposit in Australia (10th globally) and yet has currently just 7 year LOM at present (demonstrating the real scarcity of Sb) but at the same time with seemingly significant potential for more MRE add-ons. Who knows 7 years could also just be the beginning, after all there are only 2 known decent SB deposits in all of Australia, hillgrove being the biggie and yet so small LOM-wise unless we expand the resource which many here are hopeful- management has actually expressed some measured comment about it already without ramping, so take it how you want it ……
Ok that’s my longest sentence nuff for the day
My holding is a small portion of my portfolio but from little things big things grow. It’s in micro cap that 20,50,100,150 baggers are possible for die hard believers as opposed to seagull traders
I’ve just started reading the other day………..because I’ve bought into this moons ago only because of their lithium prospect near Buldania which is owned by my beloved Ltr, but LRV is a newly transformed company with the acquisition of Hillgrove and imo the market has not grasped it - in fact I totally ignored it until it came back up to 18c - so a lot of people are yet to come to grasp of the unique offering in Hillgrove - if you can buy another house from this, name it Hillgrove or Antimony.
here below’s the basis of the above revenue scenarios- haven’t looked at costs but suffice to say LRV’s given indicative FCF per annum that anyone can adjust up or down depending on personal sentiment or musing
““On August 5, it (Larvotto) announced a pre-feasibility study saying that for capex (capital expenditure) of $73m, it could achieve 80,000 ounces (oz) per annum of AuEq (gold equivalent) product (41,000oz per annum gold and 5400 tonnes per annum of antimony concentrates),” analyst Warwick Grigor said.”
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