Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter project is now in big trouble.
And the vast army of Australia’s Joint Strike Fighter contractors are also in jeopardy because our government, led by Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne, has not woken up to what it means to have Donald Trump as US President.
And so, in the lead-up to Christmas, Trump issued a very carefully prepared tweet: “Based on the tremendous cost and cost overruns of the Lockheed Martin F-35 (JSF), I have asked Boeing to price-out a comparable F/A-18 Super Hornet!”
Through that tweet Trump was making three signals:
• That he wants to end the cosy relationship between Pentagon equipment officials and suppliers, like Lockheed Martin, that has seen Joint Strike Fighter half-truths plague the project in the US and Australia. Enlisting Boeing brings competition.
• Highlight the true cost horror of the Joint Strike Fighter (about a sevenfold increase) and make that cost explosion known in the US and in countries like Australia.
• Prepare the US and Joint Strike Fighter buyers, like Australia, to accept that because of the Joint Strike Fighter cost and the failure of the plane to go anywhere near matching its rivals, a complete shutdown of the project should be considered.
Trump has had the JSF in his sights since last year but on December 12 the sheer absurdity of what has been going on with the Joint Strike Fighter was dramatically brought home to the Trump team.
On that day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman and hundreds of VIPs assembled at Nevatim air base in southern Israel to watch the arrival of the Joint Strike Fighter.
It was scheduled to arrive at 2.30pm after taking an incredible six days to fly from Texas to Israel. But despite the fact that the JSF had been given those six long days to make the journey the skies over Israel were empty — the strike fighter was late.
The Lockheed Martin public relations machine raced into action and began offering up excuses — none of which made any sense.
The disgruntled Israeli VIPs eventually left but were assembled back later that evening when the Joint Strike Fighter finally arrived. Israel actually knows the Joint Strike Fighter is not up to standard as a fighter so it will use the aircraft for reconnaissance.
But the Israelis are smart — they’re getting the plane for a peppercorn to help convince countries like Australia to stay in as full-price buyers.
Trump and his people are much closer to Israel than Barack Obama and received the six-day journey and late arrival news loud and clear. Almost certainly that event played a role in Trump taking the next step before gaining office.
In asking whether Boeing can take over the Joint Strike Fighter from Lockheed, Trump, will of course know that it is unlikely. And he also knows that the F/A-18 Hornets are not fifth-generation fighters so at the very best are a stopgap measure.
Trump’s strategy is all about dismantling the current US military and industrial defence machine that has been corrupted by power. Trump has discovered that it is a swamp that badly needs draining.
Among the people advising the Trump team are the Canadians who rejected the Joint Strike Fighter and one of the world’s foremost air defence analytics groups — Air Power Australia — founded by Peter Goon and Carlo Kopp.
It is Air Power that has been helping me unveil all the problems that have plagued the Joint Strike Fighter for the past decade. Accordingly last year I made a submission to the Joint Strike Fighter inquiry, standing committee on foreign affairs, defence and trade.
This submission sets out what any responsible defence minister or defence industry minster should now be working towards given that Trump is going to change the game (I wrote the submission well before I had any idea that Trump would be the next president).
Nothing illustrates the Joint Strike Fighter rubbish that has plagued the project more than the statements about the cost of the aircraft.
Our gullible politicians were originally told that the Joint Strike Fighter would cost $US40 million ($55.7m) per aircraft. At the time the estimate was obviously flawed.
Now our gullible politicians are being told that each Joint Strike Fighter would cost $US90m per aircraft. While it is more than double the first estimate it is just as silly. Both these estimates ignore the total cost of making the Joint Strike Fighter battle ready.
Treasury discovered real outlays would be much bigger than what was being told to the politicians and are now going for a total cost of about $US190m per aircraft in the forward estimates. But that’s still way off the mark. The Trump Joint Strike Fighter cost estimates appear be above $US290m per aircraft and rising — seven times the original floored estimates. We’ve ordered 72 aircraft so the bill is about $300bn but likely to be much higher.
The same sort of money games are being played in the US where monumental figures are coming up. Trump’s nomination of the “no nonsense” General James Mattis as Secretary of Defence means the days of playing games are over.
The Mattis appointment gave Michael Gilmore, the chief Joint Strike Fighter tester, the courage to warn that Pentagon officials have been preparing misleading assessments of progress of the Joint Strike Fighter, Australia’s defence people are too deep in the swamp to help our defence and defence industry ministers wake up to the fact that the days of Pentagon-inspired half truths ended with the appointment of Mattis.
At the moment there is an option that should save our defence supply industry. But the option will not exist for long. To appreciate the option we must start with Tony Abbott’s statement in 2014 that Australia was buying the Joint Strike Fighter to maintain air superiority in the region.
The then prime minister honestly believed he was telling the truth but was quickly shown to be talking complete rubbish when it was revealed that the commander of American Air Combat Command, General Mike Hostage, had declared: “The F-35 is not built as an air superiority platform. It needs the F-22”.
The Chinese and Russians base their new aircraft on the F-22 — that’s the aircraft that delivers clout. The Joint Strike Fighter is not worth worrying about in Russian and Chinese eyes. As part of the cosy arrangement between the Pentagon and Lockheed, the US stopped making F-22s.
Production of the F-22 needs to be restarted and the incredible software that had been developed for the Joint Strike Fighter needs to be incorporated in the ageing F-22.
If we can play a role in that transformation our industry will not be destroyed. But if we keep up the current charade then I fear two ministerial careers will be over because they will be correctly blamed for the industry carnage if Trump just stops the Joint Strike Fighter.
