Cheers, for the compliments and like you said I'm posting my observations. I moved back to Australia in 2015 and before that I'd like to think I've worked in some senior roles and also on my CV starting up one of the biggest sport nutritional manufacturing companies in the uk.
I've spent the last 10years writing briefings for CEOs and other senior management and I'll be honest my area of expertise is technology and delivering major IT projects.
It's sort of fun in that I get involved to develop decision making systems and processes on how to manage goods and services worth billions of dollars.
I came back to Australia knowing some of my capital was going to go into resources. I remember back at university a presentation on how we have finite resources, what we didn't know then was the rate of consumption was going to be exponential. It sort of makes sense with the global population and consumption. I remember in '98 after graduating reading about Musk's stepping into EVs with essentially the conversion of the Lotus. However, whilst it was admirable, I thought he was going to fail given the capital required to manufacture to scale. I did think he was perhaps one product lifecycle away (7 years) from being competitive. I was wrong there, as it was 3 cycles. But during those life cycles musk developed a cult following as you have say with Apple, investors who were backing him because if he had a breakthrough, knew they would make some money.
I look at how musk has tackled the manufacturing process and on a very smaller scale I understand his pain.
Just me and a friend started with one small factory to eventually have a science park. But the pain of growing is everything musk has had to deal with albeit on a smaller scale.
The one objective we had was in our new product development, the ability to change products, bring new products to market quickly and building the infrastructure to do this. Everything musk has done todate is about making the absolute best car at the cheapest of prices. I don't even think he is there yet, for as long as he has supply chain issues he can't actually produce the number of cars he wants, but I know he will.
So fast forward to 2015 and I was actually researching and realised everyone was looking for lithium. It was clear that mining companies were looking for lithium here in Australia. Yet, there was no money to be made. You could see the likes of galaxy and other big players were struggling with oversupply in the market because demand was weak. However, you look over to EV car manufacturing and you knew it was coming and a not if but when scenario.
Like many on here it was @
@anatol and his posts on HC made me pick up on LTR and yes I'd bought into other lithium projects that didn't deliver. However, when the market collapsed I'd been watching LTR enough to jump in as I knew I'd never have a big an opportunity as this elsewhere. Then it was a sit and wait, work crazy hours and reading just the absolute BS being posted by Market Analysts and banks and then I knew I was in the right place. Their analysis was so skewed I knew exactly what they were doing and so all through out last year, all my cash went into accumulating and also spoke to many friends and only one decided to follow me.
So I read all the posts on here and the one poster that has made me grin out of agreement is @cashhound. He is the only one that has come close to what I'm seeing.
Now flashback to 2000 after graduating I also interviewed as a market analyst for euromonitor essentially job is to analyse markets and I remember in my interview being asked two areas of major growth in the next 10 years. I of course went nutrition, sports science and health and the other one was EVs. I remember the interviewer looking at me thinking I was nuts. I think I said it was going to be revolutionary.
I look what is happening and the EV and overall energy revolution is going to be nuts. Yes, this has highlighted problems with all the chips for everything being manufactured in South Korea; yes there are the petroleum industries that have done everything to stop this, but one thing I've learnt is you can't stop market forces and go back to the geeks that were buying teslas, if it wasn't for them, we wouldn't be here now.
One stat from battery day blew me away see below and that's for Tesla. Some may know that the world current uses 17.7 terrawatts is used globally. To be able to store that just half that energy is going to require a mind boggling number of batteries. We have to use the assumption that some energy produced is consumed immediately, but when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shinning, it needs to be stored.
So this is the number of watts in 17 terawatts - 17,000,000,000,000 watts. I think Elon had a number of 12 from memory for the number of terrawatts per hour storage needed for cars and the energy grid. So obviously, that number is staggering and certainly we're seeing technology with the likes of apple that are using new programming language and chips to reduce energy consumption and I think energy efficiency will be as revolutionary as energy storage.
Below is a table that shows energy required across all the different sectors
Thing is this is the above table is a static view and with the advent of technology, world population growth, developing nations that were literally agriculture based moving to industrialised, the forecast for energy consumption and therefore storage required is below. Please note this is for the entire 21st century.
sourced
https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/howmuchenergy/
So where am I going with all this....Well for as much we have alot to thank China for, the 21st there is going to be huge demand and competition for materials and of course with this prices and forecasting supply, average consumption and demand are going to be critical. In my opinion prices as quoted on the chinese lithium exchange are artificial and this has been validated by the prices we've seen in the RMX auctions for PLS. On this basis then we could see record breaking prices for lithium coming into next year and then maybe 2023/4 this will level off when supply can match demand / consumption. That's a great position for LTR to come into the market as they have right now more certainty on where prices are going when finalising their DFS. Couple this with Buldania if early drill results show the resource is significantly bigger then LTR Share price and the close before christmas is going to be epic. I wonder then why the wondkid sold out just before the DFS ? Who would do that when you've got another 20% spike before christmas ? Maybe he was smart, hit his target and that was enough ?
Also I'm pretty sure the queen called scott Morrison and told him to sort his *hit out and participate in the climate summit and be a leader in driving the world in the right direction. But climate summit; infrastructure bill in the USA, DFS, Buldania. I'm just thinking how high.
We've had commentators such as myself that would have taken a dollar before christmas at the beginning of the year, yet now I'd be disappointed if it's not $2.50 - $3....
Can the shorters deal with that ? Perhaps we need to look at the motives of the shorters ? Who are they backed by ? It would not surprise me that shorting Lithium companies is the games of organisations with an interest to prolong the fossil era, but they're living in the past and not looking to the future as we are.
GLTA LTR holders in the coming weeks. We are about to see the making of the next mineral giant in LTR....I'm less concerned about what BHP, or RIO do as BOD have a plan and that's what I want to see, an ambitious aggressive plan.
(20min delay)