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21/05/23

10:19

Post #: 67882661
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Originally posted by ChocolateTeapot: ↑

A good week on the Lithium chemicals market with prices rising across the board - no surprise to anyone bar Goldman's and the other shorting/accumulating instos. Spodumene SC6 price hasn't been updated this week, I guess kudos to our brothers-in-arms at PLS (don't hold) for stopping their BMX auctions until the spot price is back where they want it.

SC6 continues to sit very high as a proportion of the Hydroxide price - this is going to add serious coin to LTR sales if it holds in excess of 9% - and my chart below supports that possibility. It's still a bit early to predict the SC6 prices for LTR's offtakes for hypothetical sales next quarter, although with this latest data on the current quarter's pricing so far we'd be looking at US$4950/t with one quarter's theoretical revenue from SC6 concentrate of AUD$670m. I like Joe Lowry's comment through the week that in his view, the average price for 2023 is going to be higher than the 2022 average...and we know that last year was a boom year. Holding our DSO sales until later in the year feels like good strategy, price is rising and selling a million tonnes into another booming red hot market later in the year would light the LTR fuze. Stand well back.

DSO Update
I also found DSO relevant pricing again this week and it's up US$74/t on last week that would yield sweet revenue of AUD$584/m for the estimated 1M tonnes that is likely to be sold in Q4, 23.

Thanks to:
- @RodneyHooper13 (RK Equity) and @HC_Haplo for publishing the Fastmarkets pricing on Twitter
- @jczuleta for the ore pricing published on Twitter
- @Anteviariel for the amazing KV 13 year outlook spreadsheet that I use to estimate forward revenues

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Crackin post Chocolate... love it

LTR Price at posting: $2.81 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 82.0¢		Change 0.020(2.50%)		Mkt cap ! $1.988B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
80.0¢	82.5¢	78.0¢	$7.205M	8.938M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	112249	81.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
82.0¢	55593	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	112249	0.815
6	122248	0.810
9	223207	0.805
9	214626	0.800
8	310100	0.795

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.820	55593	2
0.825	83425	8
0.830	281068	13
0.835	259463	6
0.840	438895	12

Last trade - 16.10pm 05/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

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