Would any "pure" fundamental analysts care to put forward a convincing argument about how it is that the share price of a transport company such as Toll Holdings can continue to rise and rise AT THE SAME TIME as a rampaging oil price?
Fundamentally, wont their costs increase?
Yes, I hear you telling me that they will pass on the increases to their customers. But wont that in turn impact on their affordability for customers, so that customers look for alternatives to using Toll?
And yes, I hear you telling me that Toll is not only a trucking company and that the high oil costs will only affect a portion of the company, but nonetheless, it will affect the company's bottom line.
So herein lies my central disdain for fundamental analysis - the fundamentals are clear....Toll's operating costs have to rise and fundamentally this has to affect the company's profitablity. So with the economic basics out of the way, what excuse can any FA purists provide for the rising TOL share price?
I'll give you the answer - market sentiment. The market is all about sentiment, short and sweet. Charts capture the sentiment. FA doesn't - it lags and costs fund managers money.
Ready and willing to argued (sensibly) out of my position.
Cheers
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