facts

Lets talk about a few facts.

From the last Quarterly.
Phase 2 is on time on budget, fully funded from the restricted cash on hand.
Any cost overruns is purely speculative and would most probably be provided by the Japanese anyway.

$123m unrestricted cash available as at June 30,
$48m outstanding on phase 1
$12m other capex to be spent prior to Dec, that leaves $63m
From the conference call:
opex whilst not producing = $8m pm
$63m at $8m pm = 8 months from June 30 = Feb 28 2013.
So with a 3 month TOL issue to production timetable, start worrying about cash approaching Nov 30.

Regarding a question re possible capital raisings for delays, NC said (conference call):
"we do not see short term equity raisings as useful to cover short term working capital requirements"
So I presume they'd be more likely to use debt.
Worst case, assume they need another 6 months @ $8m pm = $48m
(that would take us to May 30 next year!)
at say 60c per share = 80m shares extra, compared with 1.7billion on issue, is very minimal dilution, less than 2.5c per share dilution!

In summary, the TOL delay frustrates us all, but for long term holders, a company with a market cap of $1billion at todays prices, burning $8m per month, is not going backwards as quickly as some would make out.
Todays sp drop of 3.5c takes $51m off the market capitalisation, yet we are only burning $8m per month with the delay!