Hi, Pelm1, there are a lot of factors which make me very positive on FMS
1. FMS is lucky in IO since it has not chance to swap its IO tenement for diamond
2. FMS board shows it could change
3. BRIC indudtrial revolution needs the IO, which could last decades(see Japan's economy expansion and its effects)
4. The amount of modified concept IO was from a geologist not from FMS board
5. Trading is sum-zero game if no investor for long term inloves with. FMS price has shown this kind of involvement
6. FMS's price is based on the IO expectation but discounted from the market believe it has.
7. Big investors, if having not been on the board, needs the drilling results to jump in.
8. As small players, you have to be patient to wait for the big boys, which means the risk but also opportunities.
9. Everyone has different risk/reward profile. Based on my profile, I would like to wait for its last drilling hole.
10. Opportunities means you could not be sure 100% before the results.
11. I would like to lose my paper profit for another 5-20 times return. How much would be? I really don't know.
12. I have got all of my cost to bet FMS back. It was $6,000.
13. I decide to hold my initial 500,000 shares until the last drilling hold, since I know if I sold, I would not dare to buy it back.
14. I don't try to know everything about FMS, which is useless and impossible. I expect another luck to strike on FMS with feeling of its high probabilities.
15. FMS price after drilling results out, will be rerated. It depends on its IO amount.
16. I do feel it has 200-500mT IO. The grade should be above 53%. So if it is true, its current price is very low.
17. The conservative assumption about IO trend is it should be last 2012 to get balance between demand and supply. Market usually goes 6 months earlier than the reality.
All of above make me very positive about FMS. It is possible FMS has nothing even though the odds is rare. Currenly I have about $80,000 equity in FMS. If FMS could shoot up again, it would change my life financially forever.
Between locking the paper profit and change my life, I do prefer to change my life. $80,000 is big money to me but not enough to change my life.
I don't bet everything. FMS is the first one I bet.
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