Every BTA shareholders in HC should be incensed by the...

Every BTA shareholders in HC should be incensed by the performance of the idiot Peter Cook.

However, in the short to medium term, the share price of BTA will be driven by a number of factors ( obviously I am assuming the idiot Peter Cook do not open his mouth to talk down the sp).

GSK will release the Relenza sales results on 22 July. IMHO most of us expect a bumper sale results but more importantly the sales is likely to confirm the continuing demand for Relenza. There are a number of factors for our optimism. These are:

1) The continuing spread of the swine flu virus.

2) The list of countries reporting Tamiflu resistance swine flu H1N1 virus are increasing each day. In the recent flu season in the Northern Hemisphere, Tamiflu became totally useless against the seasonal H1N1 virus. It is only when (Not if) Relenza will be the only antiviral left to combat the Swine flu. The time frame is in months.

3) At the start of the swine flu outbreak, GSK announced plan to double production capacity from 30 million courses per annum to 60 million. 60 million course is equivalent to $102 million royalties to BTA (Reference: The 10.6m UK order in Jan was announced to represent $18 million royalties).

4) This was before the emergence of the Tamiflu resistance H1N1 swine flu virus. Health authorities around the World are now very concerned with the increasing Tamiflu resistance swine flu virus. They have started to call for Relenza stockpile. During the Avian flu outbreak, Relenza only captured 5% of the pandemic orders but GSK was still forced to increase production to between 30 million to 45 million courses. Recently Australia ordered Relenza to form 33% of the stock pile and in Japan for the first time, Relenza outsold Tamiflu in the seasonal flu market.

5) The 33% to 50% market share was before the emergence of the Tamiflu resistance swine flu virus. In the coming months as the Tamiflu resistance increases, IMHO (your guess is as good as mine) Relenza orders will far exceed Tamiflu and GSK will be forced to increase production. During the Avian flu stockpiling, the market for anti-virals were in hundreds of millions (Perhaps some HC Reader may like to research this and provide the actual data).

6) The US is already announcing plans for their Winter flu season – IMHO we should hear of some Relenza orders soon.

7) LANI had completed phase 3 trials in Japan. Any positive news will be a huge driver to the sp. This is a once-a-week anti-viral and IMHO will be the next flagship BTA product.

8) Relenza patents in Japan and the US had been extended. (Refer to PortableAlpha’s post). All BTA shareholders should be incensed with Peter Cook for not informing the market of this very important news. The value of the Relenza royalties expected for the balance of the patent life discounted to present value represents what the company is worth. The Japanese patent had been extended from 2011 to 2016. PortableAlpha had also found extension to the US patent. A 5 years extension to patents that are about to expire in 3 years time represent a huge increase in valuation. Yet the idiot Peter Cook failed to inform the market and share brokers have yet to upgrade their forecast. I suggest all BTA shareholders should email Peter Cook demanding why he failed to inform the market.

There you have it – the above are the short-term drivers for the share price. Please do your own research.