Fair Valuation, page-10

ALE is a lot more than just a pure real estate play.

I believe that ALE's real value is in its strategic business package which would be almost impossible to re-create and I'm sure ALH know this hence the original 50 year lease arrangement. If ALH/WOW was to reneg on their contract (which is unlikely) it would create a significant hole in their business and I'm sure Coles would fall over themselves to replace ALH given they too are expanding their liquor business.

I think there is a real chance that Endeavour takes advantage of ALE's depressed price to make a takeover bid (already holds 9%) given the interest on borrowed funds is likely to be well below ongoing rent payable. This move would also further provide the proposed Endeavour float with more substance (physical assets) as well as longer term business continuity past lease expiry. At these prices it must be tempting.