Fair Valuation, page-4

Hi Mooro,

Thanks for coming back to me. I would hope that this forum is used to discuss stocks objectively rather than just speaking positively about stocks you own.

There would be value in ALE at a price, however it is not near that price in my view, however I expect there is a possibility of it getting there because:

- ALH Group will likely follow all other retail tenants and stop paying rent whilst there is a shutdown.
- ALE group has not been prudent and been funding dividend payments well in excess of operating cashflow, so debt levels are now too high.
- ALE group has 50% of their debt coming up in less than 6 months time.

In my view there is a reasonable prospect that they will require a capital raise and a deep discount to:
1. Fund their interest payments whilst ALH pay not rent
2. Lower their debt levels to assist in refinancing their debt.

Of course there it is no certainty this will happen, however I would not be surprised to see an announcement in the next week saying ALH Group has demanded rent abatement and ALE is reviewing its options.