A couple points.1. I am not suggesting ALH will move elsewhere,...

A couple points.
1. I am not suggesting ALH will move elsewhere, I am suggesting ALH will not pay rent and this will cause debt issues.
2. Whilst I think there are high quality ALE premises, there are a number that are low quality and it is clear ALH has not been spending capex on those ones.

More on point 1 and the debt issues:
- It is almost certain ALH will refuse to pay rent whilst they are in shutdown, as all other retail tenants are doing.
- ALE runs on very low cash at bank, currently it only has circa $5m of free cash at hand after paying its dividend.
- That is about 2 months cash at most to cover interest & other costs before it has run dry.
- This could also trigger the debt covenants for the AMTN facility which can then call for their notes to be redeemed.

There is a very likely capital raise here and unfortunately I suspect it will be an institutional placement at a deep discount. Should this be the case, retail shareholders will get done over.

I am in this stock, I just think that it can go much lower and I'm certaintly not hoovering up shares at this price.