I don't disagree with the sentiment of the OP, but it's pretty critical to NPAT to consider the costs BHPB is stripping inline with falling top line.
eg, FY16 supply target for IO 270mt, taking $3-4 out of of C1 costs makes a massive difference to NPAT. Roll this out across all segments plus knife to SGA expenses in Corporate and i'm not that bearish on profit drop of that magnitude.
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