there is a key mistake that you've used $/t of difference in ebitda vs $/t in NPAT..
As earnings go lower, so will income tax. They may use additional depreciation this year such that their assets are less taxed later and they get a tax credit this year in real cash flow.
The NPAT is uncertain but your calculations are likely to be lower than the real cash flow (rather than reported NPAT which includes asset adjustments) and that's what investors will look at for the PE in this situation.
I could see BHP hitting half what it is now. If it hits $4.74 there would need to be even more pain.
You've also forgotten the other assets (coal, gold, and copper)... although they aren't a bright picture atm either.
there is a key mistake that you've used $/t of difference in...
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Last
$43.16 |
Change
-0.140(0.32%) |
Mkt cap ! $218.8B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $43.41 | $43.56 | $42.89 | $272.8M | 6.312M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 650 | $43.16 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $43.17 | 1162 | 2 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 02/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| BHP (ASX) Chart |