The in-ground value of the resource could be substantial.Say you...

The in-ground value of the resource could be substantial.

Say you have a margin on the coal at $70 bucks a tonne (I am discounting this as it's probably likely their budgeted margin is higher), and taking the first 85.3Mt of coal that sits between 0 and 50m in depth.

Now you do the maths on just that alone (and minus $500m in capex) and you'll find you're still miles in front. The share price is being driven by the potential in-ground resource value (with an appropriate discount for some margin for error).