I'm confused ? Someone who's not blonde - your assistance please !!
Say 4 mt for March Quarter:
December Quarterly stated average price of AUS $66 so working from that amount for the (as I understand it 35%) hedging and making estimates of 25% additional costs for profit share with contractors for $ received above $60, I work the following out on the back of an envelope:
Hedged 1.5 mt @ AUS$ 66 / US $51 (say) $10 ton profit = $15m profit
Variable 2.5 mt @ AUS $90 / US $69 (say) $30 ton profit = $75m profit
This is extremely conservative taking all things into consideration, so how is AGO not going to make a minimum profit of AUS $90 million this quarter based on very low IO prices in comparison to current prices (ie. not US $90 like it has been of late) ....... Am I having a blonde moment or is this a minimum ??
Add that $90 mill to the bank balance of either $80 mill or $60 million (depends on whether the $20 mill has been deducted yet under the new agreement) then they definitely will have a net debt of zero at the end of this quarter...... and I have used extremely low spot IO prices in my calculations so provided IO stays above US $69 for March they should still make this and some ..... so what besides the debt holders dumping shares (which seriously there just cannot be that many left) is holding this back ???
Or again am I missing something ??
Much appreciated
GLTAH
Maybe the first of the month tomorrow will see a debt repayment announcement so that we can capitalise on the ex rate?
