Fair Value For FMG, page-42

@Greatone

The past decade is an extreme outlier The average IO price for the previous 110 years (1900-2010) was $60 (inflation adjusted). For much of the 20th century it was closer to $40.





From 2014 -the last major price meltdown:

"The best explanation I’ve heard for these boom/bust cycles is that when construction booms create steel and iron ore booms they exaggerate their own demand. It takes vast amounts of steel to build the furnaces, mines, railways and ships that drive steel production growth. That fools producers into massive expansions and when the underlying construction pulse eases, the virtuous cycle of steel industry expansion reverses and huge overcapacity emerges."

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/what-can-a-century-of-iron-ore-prices-tell-us-about-where-its-going/


US steel production is a mere 72 million tons (down from 120 million tons in 1970). Nucor, the largest American producer, relies on 100% scrap as feedstock.