HCH 0.00% $1.25 hot chili limited

Fair Value is much greater than current market price

  1. 359 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 147
    The market cap of HCH is currently just under $200m at 4.7cents.
    The Productora mine project alone as is worth $1.1B at $4.62/lb Cu (May ‘21).
    HCH own 80% of Productora last I checked.
    That puts the fair book value of HCH based on Productora alone at approx 20c, not accounting for company/administrative financials. In other words the current market is undervaluing this company by a factor of 4x.

    Cortadera has 20% less indicated CuEq Metal than Productora. A rough estimation for the value of Cortaderra is thus $880m, and if you consider the majority of the capital infrastructure has already been covered in the Productora PFS, you can expect the combined NPV of both projects to easily be above $2b.

    This also does not include consideration for an expanded resource with the past years (or upcoming) drilling results, or a promotion of existing inferred material to indicated material. This also does not factor in copper price increases over the next 2 years (my personal horizon guestimate for TO bid).

    That means the book fair value of the combined projects is potentially closer to 40c once the Cortadera resource is proved up and wrapped up in a PFS. Ie. once its all said and done, a takeover in a year or twos time could potentially cost the buyer 10x the current price.

 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add HCH (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.