Hey guys, thoughtI'd start a new thread and (try) to put a positive spin on things given we justclosed at $2.4c. I completely share investor's sentimentabout the recent cap raise. My confidence in the executive team has soured andthe market clearly feels the same. Having said that, I'mbullish on uranium and have invested in AGE for a few reasons:
Ignoring recent volatility, I think theuranium price will continue to rise
I think Samphire can enter productionthis cycle (~2029/2030) when the supply/demand imbalance is most pronounced,and therefore has good torque to higher pricing (LT contracts north of US$100/lb forthe bulk of production, absent early offtakes of course)
I think growing the MRE from 18mlb tosay ~25-30mlb from drilling surrounding paleochannels should be sufficient foran initial ISR project, and they can grow from there via resource expansion.I have no idea when they plan to integrate Plumbush into the MRE (they weretalking about this in 2023 scoping study, how long does it take to get permitsfor infill drilling?) - frankly, their communication around this has been poor
30mlb+ reserve with US$90-100+ /lb implied sales price would more than double Samphire's NPV, and significantly increase IRR
There will be a premium for uraniumprojects in tier 1 jurisdictions and Samphire being in South Australia fitsthat bill
Greg stepping down to marketing/BD andworking with Kevin Smith/Traxys means we'll have plenty of contacts to securefavourable offtake terms to help with project financing
AGE becoming a developer will see themadded to the likes of PDN, DYL, BOE etc. More AFR mentions, higher ETFweightings, more passive flows etc. All positive for the share price. Maybe even Guy Keller can give us a shout-out.
There's more chance of Jesus returning than a greenfield ISR uranium project running smoothly all the way to ramp up - very optimistic, I know. Expect blowouts and delays but the overall point stands: This will re-rate if they can cut the bullshit and focus on accelerating Samphire towards production via the least dilutive path possible. The closer we get, the narrower this will trade to its NPV.
At $2.4c, AGE has an EV of ~$73m which is 29% of Samphire's $257m post-tax NPV: This is taken from the updated 2023 scoping study which had implied U sales price at US$75/lb, rather than US$80+ where long-term contracts are currently priced. Also indicated resource has moved from 12.5mlb to 14.2mlb, as has the average grade. Small steps, but hopefully the DFS next year sees post-tax NPV north of $300m. Add Plumbush + uranium price continues to rise, and it's probably more like $500-600m?
I also had a look through Bell Potter's note and picked up some funky things:
1. Their note in January included $100m (~$0.03 p/s) in exploration value for ARUP, Piedmont and Big Lake, whereas July's note marked these as zero:
I note lower Samphire NPV and corporate overheads somewhat balances this out. They also used a 10% discount rate, higher than what AGE used in their scoping study. Conservative, but probably fair given early stage? I'm also not sure about equity investments being $0 - Envirocopper equity stake should at least be recorded at cost?
2. They have total MRE at 31mlb, not18mlb. This is the old MRE from Uranium SA(the previous owners of Samphire) and included Plumbush:
3. For some reason they have cash hitting $154m by mid-2026 - must be a typo?
Not sure about this report, but hopefully FY26 delivers on some important milestones. I think 2.4c represents decent risk/reward and absent weakening overall uranium/nuclear sentiment, I'd be surprised if it continued trading down here for very long. Happy to hear others thoughts.
DYOR and good luck to all holders.
Cheers,
Dr July
AGE Price at posting:
2.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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