Hey Akpa, the calculations seem good IMO however, they do not...

First 5 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
IvRoche

81 Posts.

23

16/04/22

06:34

Post #: 60877192
Share

Originally posted by akpa14: ↑

Hi Thedream

Thank you for your replay. I understand your explanation very well. But i did consider, that IBG got from US Exim Bank an offer of a preliminary project letter to offering a USD 657 Mio dept funding. I can‘t remember at all time as long i follow projects from EXIM that they make a initial preliminary offering and afterwards they cancel that. That never happens in my opinion. So for me its pretty clear, that they will get the funding from EXIM. Thats why i only reduced the risk / chance reward of 40%. And thats still a big number. As MJ told in the interview he sees much more chances then risks at the actual project status. So i did consider this „small“ risk not to get the debt funding from EXIM. But of course this will be the key for sucess. But if the financinng is done we can calculate even different. Then we would be at a Post-tax NPV of about USD 1‘476 Mio. This number in relation to the actual MC of AUD 65.36 Mio would be a fair value of the share would be far higher then AUD 1.125 per share without the exchange consideration USD to AUD.

Best greetings akpa14

Expand

Hey Akpa, the calculations seem good IMO however, they do not account for dilution. IMO the strategic partner will take a big chunk of IBG or a subsidiaries shares using general funding terms of 60:40 loan to equity. Note: EXIM will not fund 100% Capex. For me back of the cigarette packet using your calcs above and the dilution, I think we will be looking at an SP of low to mid 30s post mine build. Happy to be wrong of course.

Last edited by IvRoche: 16/04/22

IBG Price at posting: 5.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply