fair value of range

my long standing fair value SP was 30cents and still is...
I think this stock is overvalued...
Theres alot to be hopeful about with a drill bit in the ground, SP will explode... manipulators will drive the SP way up....
All I see is risk at every stage of the process....
all holders here see is return at every stage of the process....
...
that elusive major discovery willnot be as good as you lot reckon...
and the chances of major discovery, development (decade long), and production which will absolutely see water cut problems is a long shot of around 3% for success by ticking off every stage...
valuations are based once the revenues have been collected, but is factored in at first production.... this would be 10years away !, if it is even successful which would be around 10% or slightly less chance of commercial discovery and around 5% for major discovery... and around 2-3% for full field production...
The critics are right with this one... I am a critic...
a booming SP mid drill to $1 would be a favourable time to sell...
I have no interest in RRS until announcements to the market come...
at that stage insiders would have made all the profits...
SO I guess Im a fence sitter...and that I am at these prices...
...
sentiment, neutral, sell to re-enter or hold...