Fair value

There's a lot of comment here on HC (including mine) about how BLT is worth much more than its current market cap. So, what is a fair value for BLT today?

In round figures, a 1-shot cure for HIV/Aids would be worth north of $2bn, of Hep C probably well north of $7bn (10x the victims of HIV), of Hep B say another $2bn. Ignoring other targets say $11bn in total. Odds against a bio succeeding from PhI/II are generally I think put at around 10:1. So we're down to $1.1bn. But to get there, more cash is needed. Let's assume mgt aren't stupid and that they use a mix of debt and equity and that they wait for efficacy before an IPO. That should see no more than the equivalent of say 50% dilution. So now we're down to $550m. But it's going to take say 2 years before any real earnings, so discounting at say 15%pa, we're down to $415m. Now we need to allow a bit of leeway in the market, say 30%, giving NPV $290m, or share price today 2.47.

Play with those figures how you like, but it seems that BLT right now is a gift at anything much below $2.

Any different ideas, anyone?