Fair value, page-44

Hoyland I think you have mostly answered your own question. To get partners lining up for deals I think it is reasonable to expect that efficacy for this purpose means sustained, substantial (eg your 98%+) reduction in viral load. The reasons why I think this is because BLT market this as a one shot cure, and because that is what was achieved on non human primates in the pre clinical stage. Management have repeatedly stated that the target is a complete and sustained elimination of the virus with a single shot. Anything less than this is probably not in line with what deal makers are expecting.

This sounds ambitious, but my own view is that once it is demonstrated that shRNA is present in liver tissue, then the scientists expect efficacy as per above. This is of course by no means guaranteed, but my (reading between the lines) interpretation of the announcements and related material made to date is that this is the expectation. Hence expression of shRNA in liver biopsy is one of the trial's stated efficacy criteria, and this has already been met, even with the tiny doses administered so far. In this report from Lodge Partners

http://blt.live.hqi.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1534-11947685/LodgePartnersUpdate

they suggest that once the shRNA is demonstrated then the rest is largely up to dosing. I'm not quite as bullish as this because with junior biotech stocks I think pretty much anything can go wrong. But shRNA in the biopsies is a very, very good sign.

So ravkc1, this might sound paradoxical - but I think results so far are indeed pointing towards probably efficacy, but I also think we are still in the speculative phase. I've put my money where my mouth is and hold BLT - IMHO given results so far yes I think we will get the final stated goals of the trial being a one shot cure. But until we actually demonstrate the money shot which is sustained elimination of virus then we will be speculating somewhat. With this sort of stock it's hard for me to imagine that there isn't a some degree of speculation...