Fair Value

Drawing on earlier comments attributed to AJM management, that stage 1 EBITDA is likely to stabilise around AUD120 million, and after Stage 2, at around AUD240 million, I have done some scribbling.

These EBITDA's seem quite conservative, but above feasibility, so will go with them at this stage.

On a simple multiple basis, and adjusting for debt, I get a (very conservative) share price value around AUD 55 cents. 

Unlike "leading" brokers, if a company like Altura can double production for only AUD119 million, that is truly an asset, and commands to be "valued in". Execution risk in expansion should now be minimal. 

Ganfeng will insist on expansion, and funding should be a walk in the park, if not an actual obligation of off-takers. Hell, it is only USD 85 million odd.

That attributes no value to Stages 3-5, based on resources and further proving up territory.

Those selling now, around 21 cents, after funding (with success) through this high risk execution period, deserve sympathy. I do understand the frustrations of current market corrections, where smaller companies get smashed, plus the misinformation spread on social media. 

If electric cars are going to happen, I see no greater investment than this one right now ( I have PLS just behind it).

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