It is not that complicated. If an answer proffered does does not logically align with the question, very likely something is wrong. Or in this case, someone is lying.
Some AVZ shareholders are ok with Nigel remaining at the helm, even if it prevents AVZ from obtaining a deal which would grant AVZ shareholders ownership of the southern portion. Despite Nigel arrogantly shutting all doors, they will tell themself that all is ok, since AVZ can seek recourse via ICSID, but this is misguided for two reasons.
The first reason is that AVZ's ICSID claim will be defeated at ICSID, well that is almost certainly the view held by litigation funders. If AVZ had a strong claim, and were likely to be awarded significant damages, litigation funders would be aggressively competing with each other to get a slice of the action by funding AVZ's claim. The major litigation funders like Burford, Therium, Harbor, Parabellum and Fortress would be banging on AVZ's door.
There are not many meritorious billion dollar ICSID claims floating around, and all of the major funders are well capitalized and under constant pressure to find new investments. So why is AVZ dealing with Locke Capital, an unknown funder in the international arbitration space?
The second reason is that AVZ will not secure funding to pursue the ICSID claim. This is largely due to the many challenges AVZ will face on the merits of it's claim. It is also due to the low amount of damages AVZ would receive if it were successful. In the history of ICSID, I cannot find one example of a mining company, that only holds an exploration license, being awarded damages on a DCF basis.
AVZ Shareholders who claim AVZ will be awarded billions at ICSID are either deliberately deceiving other AVZ shareholders with this baseless claim, or suffer from delusional tendencies.
For the "thinking people" who are AVZ shareholders, who actively question everything and seek the truth, analyze the Credibility International report " Study of Damages in Investor-State Cases" on the link above. The study is based on 241 final public arbitral awards issued from the inception of such disputes in 1981 through March 31, 2020.
AVZ Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
