falling off a lot- are things that bad?

The media release on Tuesday was a bit of a mixed bag- production last quarter quite good, but rain and equipment failures causing short term problems.

At this stage I'd guess that ALD would beat 100koz this financial year even with PNG plant problems; it looks like the Solomons project is picking up and will act as a bit of a buffer for the PNG problems, so rough calculations on generous P/E put this at over $3.00 for me. But: the market obviously thinks differently, albeit on relatively thin volumes. So where is my thinking wrong? I would have thought that a 100koz producer with a US$800 cost per ounce- even ignoring expansion to 200koz- would be doing OK even if the gold price is falling off a bit.

I'm clearly missing something here. Opinions, particularly contrary ones, welcome.