falling off a lot- are things that bad?, page-8

@blackburn44 - the amazingly high PE value? where are you looking? for example if I pop onto the Fairfax site and look up ALD it gives me a value of -430.

Which I agree is amazingly high. And negative.

I think this stock is a case of, not only DYOR but DYOM (do your own math). For example, most of the places that I look at which describe basic numbers (eg number of shares) ignore that the stock is listed in the UK. So from memory you could be led to think there are 85m shares when there are really 200m (if I've got this wrong PLEASE let me know).

So then it's a case of look through the annual report and work out the numbers. I've been trying to do forward predictions for this one based on hand waving guesstimates of what's likely to happen- as I'm sure many of us do. So for example, assume 120koz at a cost of US1200/oz (hopefully pessimistic compared with the $US800 in the literature). Assume the gold price stays above $1500 and they should be able to make $36mill a year. That's my lower end guess not including expansion of capability etc. So that's where I get my guesstimate that at least AUS$3.00 for the share price is not unreasonable.

As always, criticisms welcome.