Fan South -1 thoughts, page-12

I agree. I think they'e being conservative. Remember they use probability theory which can mean an educated guess. it depends on what has been included in their assumptions. Assuming the same source rocks ,I'm confident they'll find hydrocarbons. How much and whether commercial is the question. The probability of a wildcat finding oil is about 10% and decreasing. This is an exploration well and Ya could tell us if it is close to being a wildcat. We shouldn't get distracted by the high success rate to date. All except Fan 1 were appraisal wells on a fairly well defined structure. A complete duster would have been a surprise, particularly as the thickness of the field has been about 97 m gross throughout. Calling it 2 out of 2 is a bit more realistic IMO. The only certain end point is likely to be a little further west. SNE is open to the North, South and East IMO.

To sum up IMO, and my maths is stronger than my Geology 101, the cos for hydrocarbons is much closer to the top end than 17% is to the lower. I can only hope that it will be commercial. Any find should upgrade the new Southern leases. SNE itself might continue as they believe it does to the North!!