fantastic market reaction, page-114

Quackie, That wasn't the point i was making. That example you chose to analyse was just a little add on, extra scenario about people's mindset.

The gist of my post was not focused on that scenario i added on. My scenario was more focused on getting in at 50c and the likely scenario of getting out at $3. And buying on the way up as opposed to using that cash elsewhere on a stock in a downtrend.

But, while we are at it. Technically, in that scenario you chose to analyse, they did average up by making their next additional purchase at $2.50. But, the message i was trying to point out is people's reluctance to buy into an uptrend as opposed to purchasing into a downtrend. And that example typifies a lot of people's logic of "missing the boat" on the way up, but jumping on board/catching a falling knife on the way down.

As you pointed out, sometimes it is akin to gambling. And proves how tough the stock market can be. And no one knows for sure what the market will do. But, again, SLR is a perfect example of how timing is more important that time in the market. And if timing is more important, then i think understand or using trends as a tool for investing is a very valuable tool.