And what a lovely Saturday afternoon it is where I'm situated....

And what a lovely Saturday afternoon it is where I'm situated. Pity about Freo and Ross Lyon but thought Sydney would have made a better competitor against the mighty Hawks. Anyway I will not be spending my day on HC, got better things to do. Caught a few flatty last Saturday. There was a whopper that I had skidding along the surface but when it got into shallows near the bank I was fishing off, gave one almighty shake of the head and disappeared.

In regards to what the company is worth in various scenarios I have done a cash flow model.
The base case is 15% interest, 330 bill barrels, well life 22 years, shares 4.66 bill (current issue + all options) and 2.5 bill rehab costs.
For simplicity it has been calibrated so share of costs results in a reduction in interest. This proxies cap raisings. Borrowings might work out to be a bit better but that is plus interest. The main drawback in the model is it nigh on impossible to vary the flow rate but a proxy to this is to use a reduction factor in the overall costs the bigger the resource gets.

The base case is NPV of US$ 6.48 / barrel IRR 21.41% with oil at $50 resulting in share value of 5c. At $70 it increases to 9c
Increasing the resource by increments results in: Note barrel price $US, Share price $AU ($AU = .71$US)
Factor 2 (660 bill barrels) $50, 12c $70, 21c
Factor 3 (990 bill barrels) $50, 20c $70 32c
Factor 4 (1320) $50, 27c, $70 43c
Etc
The Disallowed (3.3 bill barrels) $50, 71c $1.12
On current knowns (what the market knows) the share price is about on the money. It used to be about the 10c but has come down with oil price. I am beginning to think there may not be much of a bounce until more resource is proved up. The other important factor is being able to achieve decent flow rates as this has a significant effect on costs/barrel.
I think we are a good few years away from knowing the full extent of the resource and cannot envisage a takeover offer of any value for sometime.
The main short term interest ATM is the market reaction when the drill starts turning. From there it should be able to be concluded how the general market views this company and the Senegal acreage.

Also others are dead right, we need some big money taking an interest.

DYOR IMO etc